It's Been Too Long

College Football is back and so am I. I am working off a limited budget today. Here are my plays:

Boise St. (-3) at Washington (15 to win 14.29)


4 game parlay (5.50 to win 71.02)
Cal (-14) at Colorado St.
Oklahoma St. (-23.5) hosting Florida Atlantic
Hawaii (-27.5) at La. Tech
Boise St. (-3) at Washington

Hopefully the bankroll will be a little bigger after today. I've got Boise St. in both plays so I need that one to hit. I think Washington might be a bit overrated after a big win against a very bad Syracuse team on the road last week. Boise has rarely let me down. Hopefully that trend will continue.

I'll post some NFL plays for tomorrow later on.

Baylor at Texas

I took Baylor and the points today. Baylor has hung with some pretty good teams this year (TCU, Wash. St.) and Texas is coming off a big game against Oklahoma. Could be a letdown game for Texas. I'm thinking Baylor keeps it within 4 tds.


The play:
Baylor (+27.5) @ Texas ($20)

Mizzou vs Texas A&M

I like Missouri a lot today against Texas A&M. Missouri comes in undefeated and ranked #19. The Aggies don't beat Top 25 teams very often, and they haven't beaten a Top 25 team at home since 2002. Until they prove to me that they can beat a good opponent, I will favor any quality team that plays A&M.

The play:
Missouri -2 @ Texas A&M ($40)

Weekend Recap - Sunday was GOOD to me

After a few rocky days I was able to turn things around on Sunday. The Eagles game turned out just about exactly like I called it in my previous post. The attacking Eagle defense overwhelmed Bledsoe and the Cowboys. My "long shot" 8 game teaser hit as well. Its nice when you can put down 10 bucks and get back $160. I've had pretty good luck this year with teasers and parlays, I know some hardcore wagerers will tell you that these are not good value bets vs straight wagers, but they are working for me. As for Saturday's college football, ehh I won one and lost one, netting about 2 bucks since I put more down on the Nebraska game than the LSU-Florida game.


So here's the rundown:

College Football straight wagers
LSU (pk) @ Florida ($20)
Nebraska -7 @ Iowa St. ($25 bet paid $47.73)


NFL straight wager
Philadelphia -1.5 ($20 bet paid 37.39)

NFL 8 game teaser
Chi-3.5
Car -1.5
N.O. -1
Phi +4.5
Jax -1
Minn -0.5
SF +2.5
NY Giants +0.5 ($10 bet paid $160)

So for the weekend I was +2.73 on College with a 1-1 record and + 167.39 on the NFL with a 1-0 record and the teaser. Good weekend.

NFL play(s) 10-8

I only have one straight bet today. I like the Eagles and their aggressive defense to beat the Cowboys in the T.O. Bowl. Drew Bledsoe is probably the least mobile QB in the NFL. That's bad when you are playing the Eagles who sub in and out their D-line constantly and love to come after the quarterback. All the focus will be on the T.O. return, but I think the bigger story will be the Eagles D. Philly is also getting Lito Sheppard back today to help out in the secondary.

I'm taking Philadelphia -1.5 ($20).

I also have a 8 game 6 point teaser. I seem to have fallen in love with these teaser bets lately which is probably a bad thing, but this is a $10 bet to win $150. For the most part, I try to pick games that have lines close to 7 (making the game essentially a pick 'em) and take the favorite or lines over 10 and take the dog. Pretty basic. This week its all favorites.

Here's the teaser card:
Chi-3.5
Car -1.5
N.O. -1
Phi +4.5
Jax -1
Minn -0.5
SF +2.5
NY Giants +0.5

My luck has been running kinda bad lately so I'm hoping for good things today in the NFL.

2 plays today

I'm gonna try to get back to even (or at least close to even) for the weekend on college football.

My plays:

LSU (pk) @ Florida ($20)
Nebraska -7 @ Iowa St. ($25)


I think LSU's D will expose Chris Leak as a bad qb for Meyer's offense. The backup Tebow is better than Leak in my opinion. I feel very good about the Nebraska pick. Iowa St. has the worst defense in the Big 12 statistically. They give up close to 400 yds per game. Today Iowa St. will be starting a freshman at cb in an attempt to improve their pass defense. This smells like desperation to me.

Damn

Louisville had a very slow start against Mid Tenn St. They scored late in the first half to make it 23-10 and ended up winning 44-17. Unfortunately for me the 27 point win was not enough to cover the 30 points I laid. $25 down the drain.


I'm down $55 now just from the Thurs/Fri games. I woke up late today and missed the chance to bet the early Saturday games. Now I'm feeling a little gun shy to put any more money down on the later games. That may change. If so, I'll post some plays later.

For now, while I don't have any money on the games, I like Nebraska and LSU to cover.

Louisville Friday Night College Football

As I mentioned I like Louisville a lot in tonight's game at Mid. Tenn. St. I put $25 on the Cardinals at -30. These guys can score with anybody in the country. As for Mid Tenn. St. this is from a yahoo sports story about the game tonight:

"The Blue Raiders have either been very good or very bad so far this season. Their two losses -- to Maryland and No. 16 Oklahoma -- have come by an average of 36.5 points. Their three wins -- over Florida International, Tennessee Tech and North Texas -- have come by an average of 27.6 points. "

Looking at how Mid Tenn St. has performed against quality teams, I like my chances giving 30 points with Louisville.

Just to recap my misery

Both games of my 2 game teaser missed last night. That's rough.

I had $30 on a 2 game 6 point teaser with:
FSU -4 @ NC St.
TCU +8.5 @ Utah

So for the night I was -$30. This brings my yearly total in College Football to +168. I will probably add an updated list of my records/cash levels to the sidebar later today. I've been a little unorganized so far in updating things in my posts.

For tonight, I like Lousiville a lot. Their offense doesn't slow down whether they are up by 10 in the first quarter or 30 in the 4th. The last number I saw was -33. I'll take that if I can get it.

The Twinkies

I took the Twins and the money line (+133) tomorrow for $30. Brad Radke is starting against Dan Haren for the A's. I just don't see the Twins getting swept in this series. The A's are due for their usual playoff meltdown after winning the first two games at Minnesotta.



EDIT 10-7-06: Well, well, the A's came through with the sweep. This weekend is not going well.

F U FSU

I've been betting against them and their anemic offense all year. I thought Granny Bowden's squad had enough to get at least a 4 pt win vs NC St. but of course they didn't. My teaser for the night is out the window along with my 30 bucks.....

2 game teaser tonight - CFB

I might be throwing money around a little more wildly these days but what the hell. Who knows how long we have under the current system. I'll take my chances.


So I put down $30 on a 6 point 2 game teaser for tonight's game, I've got:

FSU -4 at NC St.
TCU +8.5 at Utah

I feel good about the FSU game, their D is strong and the offense is at least good enough to get the win. I took TCU based on a recommendation from a friend who generally calls the games pretty well. Utah is a solid team but hopefully 8.5 will be enough for the Horned Frogs to stay within range.

Great article on the Gambling Ban

If you're interested in the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, (if you're reading this blog I assume you are) check out this article. Here is a portion of the article:

"Prohibition is not the answer -- regulation isIn Monday's HG Daily (for Hidden Gems subscribers only) regarding the effect of the legislation on Cryptologic, my colleague Jim Gillies noted a lecture on Al Capone and his role during Prohibition from a recent trip to Alcatraz:
"Prohibition's effect on alcohol prices was said to be on the order of a 275-fold increase within a year, and almost zero decrease in consumption of the now-illegal product. Does anyone believe that Americans en masse will stop gambling online, especially since there won't be any penalties for players? (Yeah, me neither.)"
Americans will continue to play online poker, albeit at a reduced rate (Americans still have brick-and-mortar card rooms to turn to). But that's not what the U.S. government should be concerned about; in my opinion, the real issue is that U.S. citizens account for the bulk of the $13 billion worldwide online gaming industry, yet the U.S. government receives zero tax dollars. And it's not because the online casino operators are nefarious thieves -- for the most part, the publicly traded online gaming companies are reputable businesses regulated by the respectable stock exchanges in the U.K. The reality is that the U.S. online gaming market is so profitable that these gaming companies would gladly share their profits and pay taxes in the U.S. By one estimate, the U.S. government is losing $3.3 billion in online gaming-related tax dollars to foreign governments.
And if Americans are going to play poker online anyway, doesn't it make more sense to legalize online gambling and regulate it, rather than make a futile attempt to ban it?
Direct parallelsThere are direct parallels to this in the domestic casino market. In Council Bluffs, Iowa, for example -- which is located directly across the river from Omaha -- Nebraskans deposit the bulk of the nearly half a billion dollars in annual gaming revenues generated by the three casinos owned by Harrah's Entertainment (NYSE: HET) and Ameristar Casinos (Nasdaq: ASCA). While Nebraska is loath to legalize full-blown casinos, Nebraskans are going to gamble anyway, and it's inevitable that one day, the state will decide that its residents might as well deposit gaming tax dollars in Nebraska, rather than Iowa.
Similarly, rather than watch its residents spend all of their gambling budgets in New Jersey, Pennsylvania legalized as many as 61,000 slots at 14 locations in the state, which the state expects to generate $3 billion in gaming revenue, more than half of which will be paid back in taxes. Ohio faces a similar predicament, as Penn National's (Nasdaq: PENN) Argosy Lawrenceburg -- located in Indiana, roughly 25 miles across the state line from Cincinnati -- is the industry's most successful riverboat casino, partly because of the absence of real competition. The pending introduction of slots in neighboring Pennsylvania will likely speed up gambling legislation in Ohio, in an effort to keep gambling tax dollars within the state.
It may be a little sad that these states are somewhat forced, in a way, to legalize gambling, but it makes sense. What can you really do when the propensity to gamble is as human as the propensity to imbibe alcohol?
In my opinion, the regulation of online gaming seems to makes a heck of a lot more sense than an attempted ban. It's just not clear to me who this bit of legislation truly benefits, except perhaps a number of politicians up for election in November."
-From Motleyfool.com Oct 3.